Autonomous cars are coming soon! Or are they?

You've seen it on the internet, and you've seen it on the news, you've even seen it in the newspaper, (if you still subscribe to that sort of thing) autonomous vehicles are coming. They're being tested on the roads, and they're coming! Invading even! Soon! Just think, you'll never have to take the wheel again! Browse your iPad while you drive! Go everywhere drunk! Then sleep off the hangover on the way home! It's a college freshman's dream! It's the biggest thing to happen to cars since horses were taken out of the equation! (Or at the very least, since ABS brakes were invented.)

With all the coverage out there on autonomous cars, it's easy to think that the autonomous car revolution is just around the corner. And without a doubt, it is. We're starting to live it already. Safe lane departure systems, automatic parallel parking systems, radar cruise control, they're all available on many new cars. These 'semi-autonomous' systems are paving the way toward future total autonomous-ness. A few car journalists have shown that some new cars can already totally drive themselves in some situations. (don't try what he does at 9:03 at home)

But I'm not so sure that the total driverless car is coming all that soon. Maybe not at all. And the reason we may not get it?

Us.

Human nature is going to possibly block us from getting the autonomous car, and here's why: We as humans, enjoy our safety, but know that we are prone to mistakes. A certain amount of risk is acceptable when we humans are in control. Auto and lawmakers have worked hard to make cars safer and safer, but we accept that accidents happen. We know that as long as humans are in control of anything, there will always be accidents. But when automated systems are in control, it's a whole different ballgame. When we let a machine be in control of something that could mean the difference between life and death, we demand perfection. When planes crash, investigations are held. Was it pilot error? Was it mechanical? If it was mechanical, why? How can we make sure this never happens again? Sometimes entire fleets of planes are grounded before a solution can be implemented. Boeing had its entire line of Dreamliner 787s grounded for overheating batteries. 

If cars were fully automated, the same thing could happen. Massive recalls and "groundings" could become the norm. Autonomous car ran a red light and crashed? Once? Maybe that's okay. More than once? Time for a big investigation and recall. Perhaps it could be fixed with a simple software update, but maybe the problem will be hard to diagnose, Toyota gas pedal style, and the problem will become a disaster. Is this something car manufacturers are ready for? We're already seeing a preview with airbags.

Half the models on the road have been recalled for air bags or air bag sensors. We humans just won't accept automated systems not working as they should. And who can blame us? If I crash, (knock on wood) I want the airbags to deploy as they're supposed to. If there's any sort of defect that may prevent them from deploying, I want it fixed, like now.

An autonomous car is going to go through similar growing pains. There are going to be defects and accidents, and I'm not sure the public is ready for that, and I'm not sure automakers are ready to be liable. Google's own engineers have voiced doubts, according to a CBC article, wondering: "…will we accept it when machines make mistakes, even if they make far fewer mistakes than humans? We can significantly reduce risk, but I don't think we can drive it to zero." Recent events in Congress will not make anyone feel any better about this, as representatives there have tabled a bill threatening to jail auto executives who know about a safety defect, but fail to do anything about it.  Which executive will green light an autonomous car that they worry will send them to jail? Newly retired Ford CEO Alan Mulally may have said it best: airplanes have have had autopilot for years, but "airplanes have two pilots for a reason."

Then there's the technology barrier. Google's autonomous car prototype still needs all the roads it drives on to be pre-scanned before it can drive on them autonomously. Even if the road is pre-scanned, variables such as construction and snow may still pose a problem. Will the car know where the side of the road is when the shoulder has four feet of snow plowed up on it? These sorts of problems are going to take years to work out. 

In the end, I do think fully autonomous cars will come someday. The technology is cool and people are excited about it, and as long as people are willing to pay for them when they come out, the manufacturers will strive to give these potential customers what they want. The technology hurdles will be figured out in the next couple of years, but the human safety factor may take much longer. Manufacturers will keep adding more and more automated systems, and these baby step systems will eventually get us to the fully autonomous cars that we've been promised. Just don't expect to find one on a dealer's lot, or the Google Play store, anytime soon.